Golden Opportunities: Enhancing Traditional Portfolios with a Gold Futures Stack

2025-07-23

Overview

Our latest paper explores how a significant shift since 1971 transformed gold from a zero-premium asset into one with a positive expected risk premium. Discover why this happened and how modern futures markets allow investors to efficiently harness gold’s overlooked potential. The paper examines how return stacking gold’s excess returns can not only possibly improve long-term returns but also help hedge inflation and currency debasement risk and offer meaningful protection during market stress—without compromising the integrity of the basic 60/40 portfolio.

Key Topics

Return stacking, Gold, Capital efficiency, Inflation hedge, Currency defense, Risk optimization

Introduction

For over five decades since the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, gold has occupied a unique position in investment portfolios. No longer tethered to currency values, gold has evolved from a monetary standard to a strategic portfolio diversifier. Yet despite its proven benefits during market crises and inflationary periods, many investors struggle with the practical challenge of incorporating gold into their portfolios without sacrificing core equity and bond allocations.

The traditional approach to gold allocation presents a familiar dilemma: to fund a meaningful position, investors must typically reduce their holdings in stocks or bonds, potentially missing out on the long-term growth and income these assets provide. This “funding problem” has led many advisors to either maintain token gold allocations or avoid the asset class entirely, despite its compelling diversification properties.

Return stacking offers an elegant solution to this challenge. By utilizing the capital efficiency of derivatives, investors can overlay gold exposure on top of their existing stock and bond portfolios rather than carving out space through reallocation. This approach allows investors to maintain their full strategic asset allocation while adding gold’s unique return stream and potential risk mitigation properties.

In this paper, we examine gold’s investment case through the lens of return stacking, demonstrating how collateralized gold futures may enhance traditional portfolios without the behavioral and structural challenges of conventional allocation methods.

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