Avoiding LICE: The Right and Wrong Ways to Use Leverage in Long-Term Investing

2025-03-13

Overview

Leverage is often misunderstood as inherently risky, but in reality, it is just a tool – its effects depend on how it is used. This article explores the difference between reckless and defensive leverage, highlighting how excessive leverage combined with illiquidity, concentration, or overuse (LICE) can lead to financial ruin, while strategic leverage can enhance diversification, improve capital efficiency, and manage risk. By understanding the nuances of leverage, financial advisors can make more informed decisions and help construct more resilient portfolios.

Key Topics

Leverage, Liquidity, Diversification

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Introduction

Leverage is one of the most misunderstood concepts in finance. It carries a reputation of amplifying both returns and risks, leading many to believe it is inherently dangerous. This view is not entirely unwarranted: if we look at a list of major financial catastrophes, we will often find leverage at the scene of the crime.

However, leverage itself is neither good nor bad – it is simply a tool. Leverage is rarely the sole catalyst in financial catastrophes; almost always you’ll find some combination of illiquidity risk, concentration risk, and excessive sizing that leverage exacerbates.

The way leverage is used determines whether it becomes a reckless gamble or a prudent mechanism for diversification.

To help distinguish between dangerous and responsible uses of leverage, we introduce the acronym LICE—standing for Leverage, Illiquidity, Concentration, and Excessive. These four factors often contribute to leverage-related blowups. By contrast, leverage used defensively, with thoughtful risk management, can enhance portfolio resilience.

The Dangerous Side of Leverage: LICE Explained
While leverage alone doesn’t doom an investment, when combined with illiquidity, concentration, or excessive levels, it can create a toxic mix.

L – Leverage

Leverage magnifies exposure to both gains and losses. While this is well understood, investors sometimes fail to appreciate that higher leverage levels reduce margin for error. A portfolio levered 2:1 only needs to decline 50% before being wiped out. While leverage amplifies returns, it also reduces the ability to absorb shocks.
I – Illiquidity
Leverage and illiquidity can be a lethal combination. When markets turn volatile, liquid investments can be sold to reduce risk, but illiquid assets—such as private equity, real estate, or esoteric credit instruments—may be difficult to exit without steep discounts. This dynamic played a major role in the 2008 financial crisis, where highly levered funds holding illiquid mortgage-backed securities found themselves unable to unwind positions without devastating losses.
C – Concentration
Leverage becomes more dangerous when it is applied to a concentrated position. Even a high-quality asset can experience significant volatility, and when leverage is piled onto a single bet—be it a single stock, sector, or strategy—the portfolio becomes vulnerable to unpredictable tail events. A well-known example is the downfall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), which applied extreme leverage to a highly concentrated set of trades. When market conditions moved against them, the losses were catastrophic.
E – Excessive
Perhaps the most intuitive risk, excessive leverage can quickly turn a manageable drawdown into an unrecoverable loss. This is particularly dangerous in strategies that assume low volatility, as seen in the 2018 “Volmageddon” event, where traders who used excessive leverage to short volatility suffered rapid and outsized losses when volatility markets unexpectedly spiked.

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The Defensive Use of Leverage: A Tool for Diversification

Just as leverage can be a risk magnifier, it can also be used defensively to enhance diversification and reduce portfolio vulnerability. The key distinction is that defensive leverage doesn’t concentrate risk—it spreads it across multiple, uncorrelated return streams.

Blending Uncorrelated Assets

One of the primary defensive uses of leverage is to maintain exposure to multiple asset classes without sacrificing return potential. For example, consider an investor who wants exposure to both equities and managed futures. Without leverage, they might have to split capital, allocating 50% to each. But with a modest amount of leverage, they could maintain full equity exposure while layering in a diversifying return stream. This return stacking approach allows investors to maintain broad diversification while targeting similar expected returns.

Using Leverage for Capital Efficiency

Institutional investors frequently use leverage not to make riskier bets but to achieve capital efficiency. For example, pension funds implementing liability-driven investing (LDI) often use levered duration positions to better align their fixed income exposure with long-term liabilities. By employing derivatives such as Treasury futures or interest rate swaps, they can extend duration without allocating all their capital to bonds, freeing up assets for return-seeking investments. This approach helps balance risk and return while maintaining a strong liability hedge.

Leverage as a Defensive Tool in Risk Management

Some strategies actively use leverage to hedge downside risks. Managed futures, for instance, often employ leverage to express long and short positions across various asset classes. By doing so, they can take advantage of market trends while maintaining low correlation to traditional equities.

Another example is levered risk-controlled portfolios, where a combination of assets is used to target a specific risk level. Instead of investing entirely in equities, an investor might apply leverage to a mix of lower-risk assets, such as bonds or defensive alternatives, to achieve equity-like returns with lower overall risk.

Case Study: Comparing Reckless vs. Defensive Leverage

To illustrate the difference between reckless and defensive leverage, consider two portfolios:

  1. Reckless Leverage: A hedge fund uses 5x leverage to concentrate a portfolio in speculative tech stocks. A 20% drawdown wipes out 100% of investor capital.
  2. Defensive Leverage: A diversified fund applies 1.5x leverage to a balanced mix of equities, bonds, and managed futures. Even in a significant drawdown, the portfolio benefits from uncorrelated assets reducing overall risk.

The key difference is not the leverage itself but how it is applied. In the reckless case, leverage amplifies concentration and volatility, while in the defensive case, it enhances diversification and capital efficiency.

Conclusion: Leverage Is a Tool, Not a Villain

Leverage has long been painted as a villain in financial markets. However, as we’ve outlined, its risks arise primarily when paired with **illiquidity, concentration, and excessiveness** (LICE). On the other hand, when used defensively – to enhance diversification, improve capital efficiency, and manage risk – leverage can be a valuable tool.

Financial advisors should recognize that leverage is not inherently dangerous but should be employed thoughtfully. The real question is not “Is leverage bad?” but rather “How is leverage being used?” By understanding this distinction, investors can make more informed decisions and construct more resilient portfolios.

Key Takeaways for Financial Advisors

  • Leverage is a tool, not a risk in itself. The way it is applied determines its impact.
  • Avoid LICE: Be wary of leverage combined with illiquidity, concentration, or excessive exposure.
  • Use leverage for diversification, not speculation. Defensive leverage enhances portfolio resilience by blending uncorrelated assets.
  • Consider capital efficiency. Thoughtful use of leverage can help achieve more balanced risk contributions across asset classes.
  • Stay disciplined. Implement strong risk management and stress testing to ensure leverage remains a benefit, not a liability.