Avoiding LICE: The Right and Wrong Ways to Use Leverage in Long-Term Investing
Overview
Leverage is often misunderstood as inherently risky, but in reality, it is just a tool – its effects depend on how it is used. This article explores the difference between reckless and defensive leverage, highlighting how excessive leverage combined with illiquidity, concentration, or overuse (LICE) can lead to financial ruin, while strategic leverage can enhance diversification, improve capital efficiency, and manage risk. By understanding the nuances of leverage, financial advisors can make more informed decisions and help construct more resilient portfolios.
Key Topics
Leverage, Liquidity, Diversification
Introduction
Leverage is one of the most misunderstood concepts in finance. It carries a reputation of amplifying both returns and risks, leading many to believe it is inherently dangerous. This view is not entirely unwarranted: if we look at a list of major financial catastrophes, we will often find leverage at the scene of the crime.
However, leverage itself is neither good nor bad – it is simply a tool. Leverage is rarely the sole catalyst in financial catastrophes; almost always you’ll find some combination of illiquidity risk, concentration risk, and excessive sizing that leverage exacerbates.
The way leverage is used determines whether it becomes a reckless gamble or a prudent mechanism for diversification.
To help distinguish between dangerous and responsible uses of leverage, we introduce the acronym LICE—standing for Leverage, Illiquidity, Concentration, and Excessive. These four factors often contribute to leverage-related blowups. By contrast, leverage used defensively, with thoughtful risk management, can enhance portfolio resilience.
L – Leverage
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The Defensive Use of Leverage: A Tool for Diversification
Just as leverage can be a risk magnifier, it can also be used defensively to enhance diversification and reduce portfolio vulnerability. The key distinction is that defensive leverage doesn’t concentrate risk—it spreads it across multiple, uncorrelated return streams.
One of the primary defensive uses of leverage is to maintain exposure to multiple asset classes without sacrificing return potential. For example, consider an investor who wants exposure to both equities and managed futures. Without leverage, they might have to split capital, allocating 50% to each. But with a modest amount of leverage, they could maintain full equity exposure while layering in a diversifying return stream. This return stacking approach allows investors to maintain broad diversification while targeting similar expected returns.
Institutional investors frequently use leverage not to make riskier bets but to achieve capital efficiency. For example, pension funds implementing liability-driven investing (LDI) often use levered duration positions to better align their fixed income exposure with long-term liabilities. By employing derivatives such as Treasury futures or interest rate swaps, they can extend duration without allocating all their capital to bonds, freeing up assets for return-seeking investments. This approach helps balance risk and return while maintaining a strong liability hedge.
Some strategies actively use leverage to hedge downside risks. Managed futures, for instance, often employ leverage to express long and short positions across various asset classes. By doing so, they can take advantage of market trends while maintaining low correlation to traditional equities.
Another example is levered risk-controlled portfolios, where a combination of assets is used to target a specific risk level. Instead of investing entirely in equities, an investor might apply leverage to a mix of lower-risk assets, such as bonds or defensive alternatives, to achieve equity-like returns with lower overall risk.
To illustrate the difference between reckless and defensive leverage, consider two portfolios:
- Reckless Leverage: A hedge fund uses 5x leverage to concentrate a portfolio in speculative tech stocks. A 20% drawdown wipes out 100% of investor capital.
- Defensive Leverage: A diversified fund applies 1.5x leverage to a balanced mix of equities, bonds, and managed futures. Even in a significant drawdown, the portfolio benefits from uncorrelated assets reducing overall risk.
The key difference is not the leverage itself but how it is applied. In the reckless case, leverage amplifies concentration and volatility, while in the defensive case, it enhances diversification and capital efficiency.
Leverage has long been painted as a villain in financial markets. However, as we’ve outlined, its risks arise primarily when paired with **illiquidity, concentration, and excessiveness** (LICE). On the other hand, when used defensively – to enhance diversification, improve capital efficiency, and manage risk – leverage can be a valuable tool.
Financial advisors should recognize that leverage is not inherently dangerous but should be employed thoughtfully. The real question is not “Is leverage bad?” but rather “How is leverage being used?” By understanding this distinction, investors can make more informed decisions and construct more resilient portfolios.
Key Takeaways for Financial Advisors
- Leverage is a tool, not a risk in itself. The way it is applied determines its impact.
- Avoid LICE: Be wary of leverage combined with illiquidity, concentration, or excessive exposure.
- Use leverage for diversification, not speculation. Defensive leverage enhances portfolio resilience by blending uncorrelated assets.
- Consider capital efficiency. Thoughtful use of leverage can help achieve more balanced risk contributions across asset classes.
- Stay disciplined. Implement strong risk management and stress testing to ensure leverage remains a benefit, not a liability.